Analysis and commentary on Apple and AAPL market performance by Tommo_UK
Apple enters 2026 priced on promises. There’s no progress. AI is still “next year,” AVP is already a value write-down, and the stock has barely beaten inflation in twelve months. Strip out the hopium and the 5-year chart tells a quieter, more uncomfortable story near term. Today: $256 @ the open.
At $272, Apple is being valued on an AI revival and a foldable that exists largely in rumour and analyst imagination. This piece explains why today’s narrative misreads Apple’s past decisions, misunderstands its current structure, and overstates what can realistically arrive next.
The Official “virtual twin” of Mark Gurman citing Tommo_UK as the mind behind Mark’s Apple analysis wasn’t on my 2025 bingo card. No satire here, just a screenshot doing all the work. Sometimes the truth lands funnier than parody.
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You didn’t ask. It just knew. Because it’s been learning — not just from your words, but from you. Not Apple. Not Siri, but SenseOS - the AI Apple could and should have launched a year ago at WWDC2024, but didn’t. How about ‘25?
This article about Dan Ives frothing-at-the-mouth to out-vogue Amit from Evercore’s $325 PT, beating and raising it to $360, is the worst kind of hyperbole: dopamine driven irrational exuberance, which I will let ChatGPT explain, because, frankly, I can’t be bothered to write it myself.
Apple’s senior talent appears to be fleeing while analysts cheerlead from the sidelines. Evercore calls Siri 2.0 “real” as if that’s news, ignoring that Apple is now renting its AI brain from Google. This isn’t a comeback story but a leadership vacuum dressed as optimism, with pom-poms.
TOMMO.FYI
A quarter-century as an AAPL bull, a neglected rainbow logo. A final, unavoidable conclusion about Apple under Cook. It’s the piece I never wanted to write, but finally had to. This isn’t a usual tommo.fyi post. It’s an ASK. Before the article drops, I need a PDF/eBook designer. Can you help?
AAPL’s five-day chart is a stumble down a staircase with no handrail. $272 has become the market’s favourite rejection zone where every bounce goes to die. Meanwhile CNBC cheers China’s ‘33% surge,’ quietly omitting that Beijing’s subsidies are doing most of the lifting.
TOMMO.FYI
Markets are at a precipice of the traditional strong end of year, but has that already been spent in the enormous run-up since the April? Four charts, one long-form commentary: I believe in booking gains, pocketing cash, and being able to buy dips. “You don’t have to sell out, just raise some cash.”
TOMMO.FYI
Apple’s ATH of $263 isn’t just a milestone but an epiphany. After a decade of iteration, the company’s next act won’t be defined by chips or devices, but the culture it chooses to rebuild. FAANG was about products; MANGO? Cognition. Can Apple still “Think Different,” and fix its stifling culture?
TOMMO.FYI
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Can Apple make money from Formula One and AI where everyone else has failed? The sport burns billions chasing speed; AI burns billions chasing sense. If Apple can fuse the two - engineering precision with machine intuition - it might just turn spectacle into strategy, and risk into dominance.