An exercise in making the case for a pullback to $225, unless, of course, Apple manages something genuinely new for a change. Let’s give hopium the elbow and stick to observable reality for now, though.
Apple proved integrated ARM computing and mobile was the future. Nvidia just agreed, bringing Microsoft, CUDA and the PC industry with it. Apple Silicon remains superb, but no longer mystical. If RTX Spark works, Cupertino’s private motorway lane now has competition running up against Apple’s bumper
Apple Vision Go was the obvious path: lightweight AR glasses plus SenseOS, not a $4000 headset in search of a point. A year after FYI mapped the agentic OS Apple should have shipped, Gurman is now pointing in the same direction. WWDC will show whether Apple finally goes for it, or stays slow.
Apple Silicon is excellent. That was never the problem. The problem is its “exceptionalism:” the belief that good integration excuses fifteen years of Siri drift, two years of AI delay, and a market now mistaking local inference as a reality. Apple is at the front of the pack, not streaks ahead.
AAPL is floating into WWDC on AI hope, upgrades and a familiar Cupertino glow. I first mapped the $400 path when AAPL was written off, but it was conditional: ship SenseOS, ship agency, ship proof. A prettier Siri with rented brains and “more in 2027” will not carry a mid-40s forward multiple.
