Independent UK-based analyst and publisher of tommo.fyi — where critical thinking meets geopolitically relevant dry wit. Writing on Apple, AI, and the future of agentic computing. Sharp, irreverent, and right more often than he’d like to admit.
Tim Cook says Apple’s price rises are unavoidable because memory costs have become a once-in-a-century disaster. But Cook built his legend by seeing supply-chain storms coming. Apple once made bottlenecks serve Cupertino. Now its CEO blames the rain, and AAPL’s premium multiple may notice.
Apple Intelligence now comes in tiers: None, Some and All. The full experience needs 12GB RAM and Siri usage will push users to iCloud+. After two years of AI promises, Apple has turned a platform feature into an upgrade funnel with a subscription meter attached.
Apple finally showed a Siri AI demo worthy of the name. But with beta timing, hardware caveats, no China or EU launch and little revenue visibility, WWDC did not ship the AAPL valuation case. It pushed it into the autumn.
Apple Bull Horace Dediu Once Dismissed Buybacks, Dividends and Splits. Now His 20-Year AAPL CAGR Argument Depends on Them. What a difference sixteen years makes, and how does looking in the rear view mirror, really inform what’s coming up ahead?
A better Siri would calm investors, and bore everyone else. But an App Store for Android and an AI token-free zone for developers to build their apps would change the story, and lay a Golden Path for Apple’s dev kit to become the dominant multi-platform development environment.
Apple proved integrated ARM computing and mobile was the future. Nvidia just agreed, bringing Microsoft, CUDA and the PC industry with it. Apple Silicon remains superb, but no longer mystical. If RTX Spark works, Cupertino’s private motorway lane now has competition running up against Apple’s bumper
Apple Vision Go was the obvious path: lightweight AR glasses plus SenseOS, not a $4000 headset in search of a point. A year after FYI mapped the agentic OS Apple should have shipped, Gurman is now pointing in the same direction. WWDC will show whether Apple finally goes for it, or stays slow.
Apple Silicon is excellent. That was never the problem. The problem is its “exceptionalism:” the belief that good integration excuses fifteen years of Siri drift, two years of AI delay, and a market now mistaking local inference as a reality. Apple is at the front of the pack, not streaks ahead.
AAPL is floating into WWDC on AI hope, upgrades and a familiar Cupertino glow. I first mapped the $400 path when AAPL was written off, but it was conditional: ship SenseOS, ship agency, ship proof. A prettier Siri with rented brains and “more in 2027” will not carry a mid-40s forward multiple.
OpenAI helped Apple avoid AI obliteration in 2024. Now in 2026 Gemini is being cast as salvation, OpenAI as villain, and AAPL at $300 as proof before WWDC has even happened. This is Apple’s Colosseum: faith, fear, forums, and the strange theatre of the moat shrinking even as markets cheer.
A look at the one year chart, to quickly wonder why AAPL shot up to $302 intraday before settling at $298 at the close, just weeks after a drop to $243 and then a bounce like Claris the dogcow was hit with a cattleprod.
AAPL is near $292, the VIX is back under 18, and Hormuz risk has not gone away. This is not a clean buy or sell setup before WWDC, but if complacency is this high, volatility protection may be the smarter hedge than pretending the only way is up.